AXNT20 KNHC 111113

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.


The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N25W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
mainly 80 to 100 nm on either side of both boundaries between 10W-
25W and west of 36W.


A stationary front extends across eastern Mexico. Surface ridge
prevails across the gulf waters in the wake of a cold front that
currently extends across the west Caribbean and west Atlantic.
Very dry air prevails across the basin hindering the development
of convection. Surface and scatterometer data indicate gentle to
moderate northerly winds prevailing across the gulf.

The next cold front will move across the northwest gulf this
weekend. This front will reach from near central Florida to
22N96W to 19N86W on Sunday night, then move southeast of the area
on Monday.


A cold front extends from east Cuba near 20N75W to 16N88W. An
upper-level trough extends across the central Caribbean. Diffluent
flow aloft is enhancing convection across Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, as well as their adjacent waters. GOES-16 water vapor
imagery continues to show a dry air mass over the western
Caribbean behind the front. The scatterometer data indicates light
to gentle winds over central and eastern portion of the basin.

The cold front will weaken as it continues to push east over the
west Caribbean today. Fresh winds over the far south central
Caribbean will begin to strengthen Saturday. Long period north
swell, with seas peaking to around 7 ft, will propagate through
the Atlantic waters through Saturday night, then subside through
Monday night.


A cold front extends from 31N58W to 20N74W, then continues into
the eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted
mainly north of 24N between 57W-63W. To the east, another cold
front is in the central Atlantic extending from 31N20W to 26N27W,
then becomes stationary from that point to 23N45W. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the area.

The cold front in the west Atlantic will reach from 24N65W to
northern Haiti today, where it will become stationary and diffuse
by late Saturday. The next cold front will move across the
western waters Sunday night then reach from near 31N70W to the
central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba Monday night. Fresh to
strong southwest winds will precede this front.

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