AXNT20 KNHC 111728

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.


The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N25W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-05N
between 15W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-04N
between 36W-50W.


Surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with 10-15 kt NE to E
surface winds. Scattered to broken low clouds are over the W Gulf
W of 95W. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf.

The next cold front will move across the northwest Gulf Saturday
afternoon. It will reach from the Big Bend of Florida to Tampico
Mexico on Sunday, and from the Straits of Florida to NW Cuba on
Monday morning. A surface trough will develop from the southern
Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern Isthmus of Tehuantepec to
Tampico Mexico on Sunday morning, and from the southern Yucatan
Peninsula to the offshore waters of SE Texas on Monday morning.


A dissipating stationary front extends from NW Haiti near 20N73W
to Jamaica to E Honduras near 15N83W to W Honduras near 15N88W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 10-15 kt N
winds are N of the front. 10-15 kt NE to E winds are over the
remainder of the Caribbean.

The front will continue to weaken today. The winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea will strengthen on Saturday night and
Sunday, and then expand in coverage from Sunday night through
Tuesday. Long period N swell will propagate into the Atlantic
Ocean waters through Saturday night.


A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N56W to 24N65W,
then continues as a dissipating stationary from to NW Haiti near
20N73W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the
cold front. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N19W to
23N30W to 22N40W to 24N44W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the front.

The cold front in the west Atlantic will stall and weaken later
today, and then become diffuse by Saturday night. A second cold
front, moving off NE Florida on Sunday night, will extend from
30N65W to southern Florida Monday night, and from 27N66W across
the Bahamas to central Cuba on Tuesday night.

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