AXNT20 KNHC 120003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N25W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 01N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Liberia near
04N08W to 01N24W associated to the monsoon trough. Scattered
showers are near the coast of Brazil near 00N35W to 00N47W in the
proximity of the ITCZ.


Surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with light to gentle
NE surface winds. Scattered to broken low clouds are over the
western Gulf. Mostly fair weather is over the Gulf with dry air
prevailing across much of the basin.

A cold front moving into the NW Gulf on Saturday afternoon, will
reach from the Big Bend of Florida to Tampico Mexico on Sunday,
and from the Straits of Florida to NW Cuba on Monday morning. A
surface trough will develop from the southern Yucatan Peninsula,
to the northern Isthmus of Tehuantepec to Tampico Mexico on Sunday
morning, and from the southern Yucatan Peninsula to the offshore
waters of SE Texas on Monday morning. This trough will linger over
the western Gulf through early next week.


A cold front extends from western Atlantic to NW Haiti near
20N73W, then across the Windward Passage to 19N76W. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also observed north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and fair weather
prevails across the basin.

The front will continue to weaken today. NE flow across the
Windward Passage may pulse to fresh tonight into early Saturday
and Sunday. Winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will then
expand in coverage from Saturday night through Wednesday. Long
period N swell will propagate into the Atlantic Ocean waters and
Caribbean Sea passages through Saturday night.


A cold front extends over W Atlantic from 31N55W to 20N73W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the cold
front mainly south of 31N-22N. A surface trough is within the
proximity of the front near 28N57W to 19N65W. Scatterometer data
shows an additional boundary behind the front from 27N64W to
24N71W, and 26N78W. Further east, a cold front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N19W to 21N30W to 22N42W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front.

A cold front in W Atlantic from 31N19W to the Windward Passage
will stall and weaken tonight, becoming diffuse by Saturday night.
A second cold front, moving off NE Florida on Sunday, will extend
from 30N65W to southern Florida Monday night, and from 27N66W
across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Tuesday night. This front
will dissipate N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Wed night.

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