AXNT20 KNHC 120538

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 AM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N28W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is seen within
150 nm of the monsoon trough between 21W-26W. Elsewhere within 300
nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted.


A line of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms is moving
from the Texas coast into the western Gulf of Mexico. This line is
likely to persist through the overnight hours and affect waters
west of 95W and north of 25N. The line is not particularly strong,
but scattered thunderstorms and brief gusty winds are possible in
the area until sunrise. The instability in the area is being
enhanced by a low pressure system in SW Oklahoma and an associated
cold front over west Texas. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure
extends from the mid-Atlantic U.S. East Coast to the NE Gulf of
Mexico, leading to relatively quiet weather over the eastern and
central Gulf.

The cold front that is currently over west Texas will move into
the NW Gulf this afternoon. The front will reach from the Big
Bend of Florida to Tampico Mexico on Sunday, and from the Straits
of Florida to NW Cuba on Monday morning. A surface trough will
develop from the southern Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern
Isthmus of Tehuantepec to Tampico Mexico on Sunday morning, and
from the southern Yucatan Peninsula to the offshore waters of SE
Texas on Monday morning. This trough will linger over the western
Gulf through early next week.


The tail end of a dissipating stationary front extends from the
Windward Passage northeastward into the Atlantic. East of the
front, a surface trough is over the Atlantic with its SW end near
the N coast of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over Hispaniola as well as the waters just north
of the Dominican Republic and western Puerto Rico. Isolated
showers are also near portions of the Leeward Islands. The
remainder of the Caribbean is relatively quiet at this time.

NE flow across the approach to the Windward Passage may pulse to
fresh tonight into early Saturday. Winds in the S central
Caribbean Sea will strengthen tonight through Saturday, and then
expand in coverage from Saturday night through Wednesday. Long
period N swell will propagate into the Atlantic Ocean waters and
Caribbean Sea passages through Saturday night.


A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 32N53W to 27N60W to
23N66W, and it continues as a dissipating stationary front from
23N66W to the Windward Passage. A surface trough is located just
east of the front from 28N56.5W to 24N62.5W to just N of San Juan
Puerto Rico. Another surface trough is analyzed west of the front
from 30N61W to 25N68W to the NW Bahamas. From 22N-27N, scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the front, mainly near the
trough that is to the east of the front. North of 27N, scattered
moderate convection is seen between 50W-60W.

Farther east, a 1017 mb surface low is near 31N24W. This low is a
deep-layered occluded low. An occluded front extends north, then
east, from the low and out of the forecast area, but then turns
south and enters the area as a cold front, which extends from
31N19W to 26N21W to 21N30W to 21N39W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 27N between 18W- 26W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere along the front NE of 23N25W.

A dissipating stationary front extending from 23N65W to the
Windward Passage will wash out completely by early this morning.
A new cold front, moving off NE Florida on Sunday, will extend
from 30N65W to southern Florida Monday night, and from 27N66W
across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Tuesday night. This front
will dissipate N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Wed night.

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