000
AXNT20 KNHC 131131
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 00N27W to 01S40W and into the coast of Brazil
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection
is present from 00N-08N between 10W-20W, and from 01N-05N between
30W-40W. Isolated showers are south of 05N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from near Panama City Florida
to 26N90W to 22N96W to near Tampico Mexico and inland over Mexico
to 23N99W. The front becomes stationary at that point and
continues NW farther inland into Mexico. Radar imagery shows a
line of scattered showers just ahead of the front north of 29N
between 84W-86W and over the central portion of the Florida
Panhandle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring
along the front near the coast of Mexico from 21N-23N west of 95W.
Water vapor imagery shows drier air behind the front covering the
NW Gulf of Mexico as a ridge of high pressure moves in behind the
front.

The cold front from Panama City Florida to Tampico Mexico will
reach from S Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula early on Mon,
pushing SE of the basin Mon evening. A surface trough will develop
offshore of Veracruz Mexico in the SW Gulf Mon, lingering over
the western Gulf through Wed before pushing W and inland as
surface ridging shifts to the E. The ridge will then dominate
across the basin through Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 84/85W from 16N-21N. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm either side of the
trough axis from 18N-21.5N. Aside from light isolated trade wind
showers over portions of the eastern Caribbean, the weather is
rather quiet across the Caribbean Sea today as dry mid-level air
covers the region.

The weak surface trough in the NW Caribbean will shift W through
today. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through the forecast period with winds pulsing to near
gale at night NW of the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly
moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers cover the area north of 28N between 70W-80W.
Some slight instability exists in the area due to the proximity of
a low pressure system over western Georgia and an associated
frontal system draped over the coastal Carolinas.

A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N49W to 26N54W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 20N48W to 27N50W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N-32N between 45W-
57W. This activity is mostly occurring east of a line extending
from 21N57W to 28N55W to 32N51W.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a closed mid-upper level low is
centered in the vicinity of 31N28W. At the surface, a 1014 mb low
is analyzed near 27N27W. A surface trough runs through the low
from 31N26W to the low to 24N27W to 23N33W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-32N between 21W-29W.

A cold front will move offshore of NE Florida tonight, reaching
from 31N68W to the central Bahamas Mon night, from 28N65W to the
Turks and Caicos Tue night, from 23N65W to the N coast of the
Dominican Republic Wed night, then from 22N63W to N of the Mona
Passage Thu night while weakening. Overall, marine conditions will
remain fairly tranquil through the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131131
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 00N27W to 01S40W and into the coast of Brazil
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection
is present from 00N-08N between 10W-20W, and from 01N-05N between
30W-40W. Isolated showers are south of 05N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from near Panama City Florida
to 26N90W to 22N96W to near Tampico Mexico and inland over Mexico
to 23N99W. The front becomes stationary at that point and
continues NW farther inland into Mexico. Radar imagery shows a
line of scattered showers just ahead of the front north of 29N
between 84W-86W and over the central portion of the Florida
Panhandle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring
along the front near the coast of Mexico from 21N-23N west of 95W.
Water vapor imagery shows drier air behind the front covering the
NW Gulf of Mexico as a ridge of high pressure moves in behind the
front.

The cold front from Panama City Florida to Tampico Mexico will
reach from S Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula early on Mon,
pushing SE of the basin Mon evening. A surface trough will develop
offshore of Veracruz Mexico in the SW Gulf Mon, lingering over
the western Gulf through Wed before pushing W and inland as
surface ridging shifts to the E. The ridge will then dominate
across the basin through Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 84/85W from 16N-21N. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm either side of the
trough axis from 18N-21.5N. Aside from light isolated trade wind
showers over portions of the eastern Caribbean, the weather is
rather quiet across the Caribbean Sea today as dry mid-level air
covers the region.

The weak surface trough in the NW Caribbean will shift W through
today. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through the forecast period with winds pulsing to near
gale at night NW of the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly
moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers cover the area north of 28N between 70W-80W.
Some slight instability exists in the area due to the proximity of
a low pressure system over western Georgia and an associated
frontal system draped over the coastal Carolinas.

A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N49W to 26N54W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 20N48W to 27N50W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N-32N between 45W-
57W. This activity is mostly occurring east of a line extending
from 21N57W to 28N55W to 32N51W.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a closed mid-upper level low is
centered in the vicinity of 31N28W. At the surface, a 1014 mb low
is analyzed near 27N27W. A surface trough runs through the low
from 31N26W to the low to 24N27W to 23N33W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-32N between 21W-29W.

A cold front will move offshore of NE Florida tonight, reaching
from 31N68W to the central Bahamas Mon night, from 28N65W to the
Turks and Caicos Tue night, from 23N65W to the N coast of the
Dominican Republic Wed night, then from 22N63W to N of the Mona
Passage Thu night while weakening. Overall, marine conditions will
remain fairly tranquil through the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen