AXNT20 KNHC 131734

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 05N10W and extends to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 01S38W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-07N between 10W-21W, and
from 00N-04N between 28W-36W. Scattered showers are from 02S-04N
between 45W-51W.


As of 13/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 30N83W
to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to S of Tampico Mexico
near 21N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
15-20 kt NW winds are W of the front. Water vapor imagery shows
drier air behind the front covering the NW Gulf of Mexico as a
ridge of high pressure moves in behind the front.

The cold front will extend from the Straits of Florida to NW Cuba
to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W on Monday
morning, then reach the central Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday
morning...out of the area. A surface trough will develop on Monday
morning, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the coastal waters
of Mexico and possibly reach to the coastal waters of Corpus
Christi Texas, during the next three days. Expect possible
rainshowers near the surface trough. A surface ridge eventually
will develop in the central Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the


A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N85W to 16N85W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of the trough.
Additional scattered showers are over E Honduras and Nicaragua.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean, while a
trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the
entire Caribbean Sea and Central America.

The surface trough over the NW Caribbean will persist through Tue.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. The winds will pulse to
near gale force at night along the coast of NW Colombia. Expect
possible rainshowers, for the next three days, in the coastal
sections from the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 20N. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will prevail elsewhere.


Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 60W.

A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N48W to 25N53W. A
surface trough is also from 25N50W to 20N50W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are N of 20N between 45W-53W. An upper
level trough is along 55W N of 15N enhancing convection.

A 1014 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 30N28W. A surface trough
extends S from the low to 27N25W to 22N29W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are N of 28N between 21W-29W. An upper
level low centered near 32N27W is also enhancing convection.

A cold front will move offshore of NE Florida tonight, reaching
from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 23N79W on
Monday morning. The front will extend from 31N65W to the central
Bahamas Tue, and extend from 31N55W to the S Bahamas Wed. The
marine conditions will remain fairly tranquil, overall, during the
next several days.

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