000
AXNT20 KNHC 132343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the
coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 00N19W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between
06W and 21W, and from 00N to 04N between 32W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N82W to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W to Tuxpan Mexico near 21N98W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-20 kt
northerly winds are NW of the front. Water vapor imagery shows
drier air behind the front covering the NW Gulf of Mexico as a
ridge of high pressure builds in behind the front.

The cold front will pass through the Straits of Florida to NW
Cuba to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W on Mon
morning, moving out of the area Tue. A surface trough will develop
on Mon morning in the SW Gulf extending northward to the Texas
coastal waters through mid-week. The trough will shift W and
inland by the end of the week as ridging builds in from the E. A
strong cold front may reach the NW Gulf waters by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N86W to 17N84W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of either side of the trough.
Additional isolated showers are embedded in the trade wind flow
across the entire basin. Late morning scatterometer imagery
indicated strong NE winds within about 90 nm of the northern
coast of Colombia, N of 11N. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover
the remainder of the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate
winds cover the eastern and western Caribbean.

The trough in the NW Caribbean will shift W over the Yucatan
Peninsula by Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail
in the S central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. The
winds will pulse to near gale force at night along the coast of NW
Colombia. Expect possible rainshowers, for the next three days,
in the coastal sections from the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia to the
Yucatan Peninsula near 20N. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has emerged just offshore the northeast coast of
Florida this evening. As of 2100 UTC, a pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N78W to 28N81W, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms along with fresh southerly winds within 180 nm E of
the trough axis. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Over the
central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N47W to
25N53W. A surface trough extends from 24N51W to 19N52W. Isolated
moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms are from 20N to
31N between 44W and 52W. An upper low with an associated 1014 mb
surface low centered near 29N25W is supporting scattered
thunderstorms from 28N to 31N between 21N and 27W.

The cold front will reach from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas to the
coast of Cuba near 23N79W on Mon morning, from 29N65W to 24N71W
to the Windward Passage Tue morning, then from 25N65W to 23N70W
and weakening to the coast of north central Hispaniola on Wed
morning. Another cold front may drop S of 31N over the
southwestern north Atlantic Fri and Fri night. The stationary
front over the central Atlantic is expected to begin moving
eastward as a cold front on Mon before dissipating Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the
coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 00N19W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between
06W and 21W, and from 00N to 04N between 32W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N82W to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W to Tuxpan Mexico near 21N98W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-20 kt
northerly winds are NW of the front. Water vapor imagery shows
drier air behind the front covering the NW Gulf of Mexico as a
ridge of high pressure builds in behind the front.

The cold front will pass through the Straits of Florida to NW
Cuba to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W on Mon
morning, moving out of the area Tue. A surface trough will develop
on Mon morning in the SW Gulf extending northward to the Texas
coastal waters through mid-week. The trough will shift W and
inland by the end of the week as ridging builds in from the E. A
strong cold front may reach the NW Gulf waters by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N86W to 17N84W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of either side of the trough.
Additional isolated showers are embedded in the trade wind flow
across the entire basin. Late morning scatterometer imagery
indicated strong NE winds within about 90 nm of the northern
coast of Colombia, N of 11N. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover
the remainder of the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate
winds cover the eastern and western Caribbean.

The trough in the NW Caribbean will shift W over the Yucatan
Peninsula by Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail
in the S central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. The
winds will pulse to near gale force at night along the coast of NW
Colombia. Expect possible rainshowers, for the next three days,
in the coastal sections from the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia to the
Yucatan Peninsula near 20N. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has emerged just offshore the northeast coast of
Florida this evening. As of 2100 UTC, a pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N78W to 28N81W, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms along with fresh southerly winds within 180 nm E of
the trough axis. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Over the
central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N47W to
25N53W. A surface trough extends from 24N51W to 19N52W. Isolated
moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms are from 20N to
31N between 44W and 52W. An upper low with an associated 1014 mb
surface low centered near 29N25W is supporting scattered
thunderstorms from 28N to 31N between 21N and 27W.

The cold front will reach from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas to the
coast of Cuba near 23N79W on Mon morning, from 29N65W to 24N71W
to the Windward Passage Tue morning, then from 25N65W to 23N70W
and weakening to the coast of north central Hispaniola on Wed
morning. Another cold front may drop S of 31N over the
southwestern north Atlantic Fri and Fri night. The stationary
front over the central Atlantic is expected to begin moving
eastward as a cold front on Mon before dissipating Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto