AXNT20 KNHC 140524

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.


The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the
coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 03N14W and to 00N19W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S27W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N-05N between 07W-12W, from 01S-06N between 21W-27W, and from
01S-03N between 29W-39W.


As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Lake Okeechobee Florida
to just north of Naples Florida near 26N82W to 24N87W to 22N93W,
where the front becomes stationary. The stationary front continues
from 22N93W to near Tuxpan Mexico near 21N97W and inland over
Mexico. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm of the front
between 84W-89W. Isolated showers are near and north of the front
west of 92W. Scattered showers are from 21N-24N west of 96W.

The cold front will pass through the Straits of Florida to NW
Cuba to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W on Monday
morning, moving out of the area Tuesday. A surface trough will
develop on Monday morning in the SW Gulf extending northward to
the Texas coastal waters through mid-week. The trough will shift W
and inland by the end of the week as ridging builds in from the
E. A weak cold front may drop into the northern waters Friday.


A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N86W to 18N84W.
Isolated showers are within 120 nm of either side of the trough,
mainly north of 20N. Additional isolated showers are embedded in
the trade wind flow across the entire basin. Evening scatterometer
data indicates fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia
from 11N-13N east of 79W. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the
remainder of the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds
cover the eastern and western Caribbean.

The weak trough in the NW Caribbean Sea will shift W over the
Yucatan Peninsula by Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will
prevail in the S central Caribbean Sea through the forecast
period. The winds will pulse to near gale force at night along the
coast of NW Colombia. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere.


As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N77W to Fort Pierce
Florida to Lake Okeechobee to just north of Naples Florida. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 31N75W to 29N78W, with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms along with fresh southerly
winds within 150 nm E of the trough axis. A surface trough is
along 59W from 24N-29N. Isolated showers are within 90 nm west and
within 150 nm east of the trough, mainly north of 26N. Over the
central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N48W to 28N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 43W-46W. A
surface trough extends from 24N52W to 20N53W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are from 19N-25N between 47W-53W. An upper low
with an associated 1014 mb surface low centered near 29N25W is
supporting scattered thunderstorms north of 28N between 21W-25W.

The cold front from 31N77W to Fort Pierce Florida will reach from
31N72W to the NW Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 23N79W on Mon
morning, from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas Tue morning, from 24N65W to the
Turks and Caicos to eastern Cuba Wed morning, slowing and becoming
diffuse SE of there through the end of the week. Another cold
front may drop S of 31N Fri and Fri night. The marine conditions
will remain fairly tranquil, overall, during the next several

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