000
AXNT20 KNHC 141134
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the
coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N16W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S-04N
between 25W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Grand Bahama Island to
the Florida Keys to 23N87W to 21N94W. Isolated showers are within
60 nm of the cold front between 84W-87W and west of 91W. A surface
trough has formed over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the
coast of Mexico from 20N96W to 22N97.5W to 25N97.5W. Broken to
overcast clouds and isolated showers are from 21N-24N west of 95W.

The cold front that extends from the Florida Keys to 21N94W will
pass through the Straits of Florida today and move out of the
area tonight. The surface trough in the SW Gulf will remain near
the coast of Mexico extending northward to the Texas coastal
waters through mid-week. The trough will shift W and inland by
the end of the week as ridging builds in from the E. A weak cold
front will move across the northern waters Thu afternoon through
Fri evening when it is expected to dissipate just N of Tampa Bay.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 18N86W to 22N87W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 20N-22N between
84W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras south of 17N. The remainder of the basin is relatively
quiet, although isolated showers are embedded in the trade wind
flow across the entire basin. Evening scatterometer data indicated
fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N
east of 79W. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of
the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds cover the
eastern and western Caribbean.

A surface trough moving N of the Gulf of Honduras will reach the
Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Belize today along with showers
and locally strong winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail
in the S central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period,
including the Gulf of Venezuela. The winds will pulse to near gale
force at night along the coast of NW Colombia. Mainly moderate to
locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N78W to
Grand Bahama Island to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 27N between 67W and the
cold front with fresh SW winds east of the front and fresh NW
winds west of the front north of 28N. A surface trough is along
59/60W from 24N-30N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm west and
within 120 nm east of the trough, mainly north of 26N.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N47W to
28N50W. Scattered showers are located between 40W and the cold
front north of 28N. A surface trough extends from 25N51W to
20N52W. An upper-level trough axis in the vicinity extends its
axis from 30N48W to 19N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 19N-25N between 47W-52W. Farther east, a 1014 mb surface low
is near 30N25W. An associated weakening upper low to the north of
the surface low is supporting scattered thunderstorms from 27N-
32N between 20W-24W.

The cold front extending from 31N73W to the Florida Keys will
reach from 30N64W to the Turks and Caicos on early Tue morning,
from 24N65W to N of Hispaniola early on Wed, stalling on Thu
morning from 25N65W to 24N68W before dissipating E of the area
over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected N of
29N today and tonight as the front moves eastward. Another cold
front may drop S of 31N Fri and Fri night. The marine conditions
will remain fairly tranquil, overall, during the next several
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141134
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the
coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N16W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S-04N
between 25W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Grand Bahama Island to
the Florida Keys to 23N87W to 21N94W. Isolated showers are within
60 nm of the cold front between 84W-87W and west of 91W. A surface
trough has formed over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the
coast of Mexico from 20N96W to 22N97.5W to 25N97.5W. Broken to
overcast clouds and isolated showers are from 21N-24N west of 95W.

The cold front that extends from the Florida Keys to 21N94W will
pass through the Straits of Florida today and move out of the
area tonight. The surface trough in the SW Gulf will remain near
the coast of Mexico extending northward to the Texas coastal
waters through mid-week. The trough will shift W and inland by
the end of the week as ridging builds in from the E. A weak cold
front will move across the northern waters Thu afternoon through
Fri evening when it is expected to dissipate just N of Tampa Bay.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 18N86W to 22N87W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 20N-22N between
84W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras south of 17N. The remainder of the basin is relatively
quiet, although isolated showers are embedded in the trade wind
flow across the entire basin. Evening scatterometer data indicated
fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N
east of 79W. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of
the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds cover the
eastern and western Caribbean.

A surface trough moving N of the Gulf of Honduras will reach the
Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Belize today along with showers
and locally strong winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail
in the S central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period,
including the Gulf of Venezuela. The winds will pulse to near gale
force at night along the coast of NW Colombia. Mainly moderate to
locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N78W to
Grand Bahama Island to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 27N between 67W and the
cold front with fresh SW winds east of the front and fresh NW
winds west of the front north of 28N. A surface trough is along
59/60W from 24N-30N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm west and
within 120 nm east of the trough, mainly north of 26N.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N47W to
28N50W. Scattered showers are located between 40W and the cold
front north of 28N. A surface trough extends from 25N51W to
20N52W. An upper-level trough axis in the vicinity extends its
axis from 30N48W to 19N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 19N-25N between 47W-52W. Farther east, a 1014 mb surface low
is near 30N25W. An associated weakening upper low to the north of
the surface low is supporting scattered thunderstorms from 27N-
32N between 20W-24W.

The cold front extending from 31N73W to the Florida Keys will
reach from 30N64W to the Turks and Caicos on early Tue morning,
from 24N65W to N of Hispaniola early on Wed, stalling on Thu
morning from 25N65W to 24N68W before dissipating E of the area
over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected N of
29N today and tonight as the front moves eastward. Another cold
front may drop S of 31N Fri and Fri night. The marine conditions
will remain fairly tranquil, overall, during the next several
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen