000
AXNT20 KNHC 141711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the
coast of Africa near 08N13W and extends to 01N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N19W to 02S32W to the coast of Brazil near
01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 02N between
27W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 25N80W to 21N94W. Scattered showers are
observed along the front. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin on the wake of the front. To the west, a
surface trough has formed over the far western Gulf waters
extending from 24N97W to 21N96W.

The front will continue moving southeast away from the basin by
tonight. The surface trough over the western Gulf will shift
slowly west over Mexico during the next couple of days. The next
cold front will cross the northern waters Thursday afternoon
through Friday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the northwest Caribbean from 22N86W to
19N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough mainly west
of 85W. The remainder of the basin is relatively quiet, although
scattered low-topped showers are embedded in the trade wind flow
across the entire basin. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to
strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N east of
79W. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the
central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds prevail over the
eastern and western Caribbean.

The surface trough across the northwest Caribbean will dissipate
by Tuesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-
central Caribbean Sea through the end of the work-week, including
the Gulf of Venezuela. The winds will pulse to near-gale force at
night along the coast of NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds will generally prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to
28N77W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are seen along the front
mainly north of 27N. To the east, a surface trough extends along
60W between 28N-31N. Another trough extends from 26N56W to 21N52W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm east of the trough, mainly
between 19N-24N. A 1016 mb surface low is centered over the east
Atlantic near 29N26W, with surface trough extending from the low
to 23N31W.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from 30N64W to
the Turks and Caicos on early Tuesday morning, from 24N65W to N
of Hispaniola early on Wednesday, stalling on Thursday morning
from 25N65W to 24N68W before dissipating E of the area over the
weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected north of 29N
through tonight as the front moves eastward. Another cold front
may drop south of 31N on Friday. The marine conditions will
remain fairly tranquil during the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA