AXNT20 KNHC 121718

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Gulfport Mississippi to
Tampico Mexico. The front is moving quickly SE across the Gulf of
Mexico. Gales are forecast to begin by 1800 UTC today in the SW
Gulf of Mexico W of the front, south of 25N and W of 93W. Gales
are expected to prevail through tonight offshore of Veracruz and
end around sunrise Wed. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected in the SW
Gulf behind the front through early Wed before gradually
subsiding. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W and extends to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 01S18W to 02S21W to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
ITCZ from 27W to the coast of Brazil.


As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from near Gulfport
Mississippi to 29N90W to 24N95W to Tampico Mexico and then turns
northwestward inland into Mexico to 25N100W. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is along the cold front. Additional scattered to
numerous moderate convection is behind the cold front over the NW
Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. Near gale N
winds are occurring behind the front, with gales expected by 1800
UTC S of 25N and W of the front. The cold front will extend from
SW Florida to 24N84.5W to the Yucatan Peninsula by tonight. The
cold front will dissipate from the Straits of Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Southerly return flow will prevail
across the basin on Thursday and Friday.


Troughing at 500 mb is present over the vicinity of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 and the
CIRA Layered Precipitable Water product show somewhat increased
moisture content in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over the Yucatan Channel, mainly N of
20N and W of 84.5W. The remainder of the Caribbean is relatively
quiet with only isolated showers seen near Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. The latest ASCAT pass from around 12/1342 UTC shows
that strong trades cover the entire central Caribbean from
Hispaniola to the coast of South America W of 69W, with near gales
from 11N-14N between 73W-78W. Elsewhere, mainly fresh trades

High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds across the entire central Caribbean Sea. The trade winds
will diminish slightly on Wednesday, as an approaching cold front
weakens the ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the
Yucatan Channel on Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will be
confined to the south central Caribbean Sea from Thursday through


A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh southerly winds over the W Atlantic
east of Florida as a cold front quickly moves E over the central
Gulf of Mexico. Farther east, a dissipating cold front over the
eastern Atlantic extends from 31N27W to 27N30W to 25N35W. Isolated
showers are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough extends
from 30N23W to 21N21W with no significant convection present. The
Atlantic ridge remains in control with fair weather across much of
the basin.

Fresh southerly winds east of Florida will increase to strong this
afternoon, ahead of a cold front that will reach the W Atlantic
tonight. Behind the front, strong N winds are expected Wed. The
front will reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba on Wednesday night,
then weaken and dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas
by late Thursday. Southerly return flow will develop across the
region on Friday, with the wind speeds increasing on Saturday.

For additional information please visit