AXNT20 KNHC 122326

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
626 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W to S Mexico near
18N95W. The front is moving quickly SE across the Gulf of Mexico.
Gale force winds are within 120 nm NW of front. Gales are
expected to prevail through tonight offshore of Veracruz and end
around 1800 UTC Wed. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our
website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W and extends to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 02S20W to 02S21W to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-07S between


As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W to S Mexico near
18N95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the
Texas coast. Gale force winds are NW of the front. See above. E
of front, winds are from the S at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the warm sector over the E Gulf from 22N-30N
between 85W-88W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows a line of
scattered moderate convection over Florida from Daytona Beach to
Lake Okeechobee.

The front will quickly move across the basin overnight, then
stall and dissipate from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula Wed. Southerly return flow will prevail across the basin
Thu and Fri.


Scattered moderate convection is over most of Cuba, the Yucatan
Straits, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, and
NE Nicaragua. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. In the
upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence.

High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at
night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Trade winds will
diminish slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the
ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan
Channel Wed. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south
central Caribbean Thu through Sat.


A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. A
surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N38W to 26N46W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface
trough is W of the Canary Islands from 30N24W to 25N21W depicted
by a sharp wind shift.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds through tonight. Southerly winds will increase
east of Florida tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will
reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba Wed night, then weaken and
dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas by late Thu.
Southerly return flow will develop across the region Fri, with
winds increasing Sat.

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