AXNT20 KNHC 130557

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to the
Bay of Campeche near 19N94W to S Mexico near 18N94W. The front is
moving quickly SE across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds are
within 120 nm NW of front. Gales are expected to prevail through
tonight offshore of Veracruz and end by early Wednesday morning.
Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W and extends to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 02S30W to near the coast of Brazil 02S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05S-00N between 22W-40W associated
to the proximity of the ITCZ. Isolated moderate convection is
present near the monsoon trough 01N-03N between 12W-16W.


A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W across
the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W to S Mexico near
18N94W. Scattered moderate convection extends 210 nm of the Texas
coast. Gale force winds are NW of the front. See Special Features
section above for more details about the Gale Warning. East of
the front, winds are from the S at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the warm sector over the E Gulf from 21N-30N
between 82W-86W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows a line of
scattered moderate isolated strong convection from the Florida
Panhandle to Daytona Beach and into Fort Myers.

A strong cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend to the
central Bay of Campeche will quickly move across the remainder of
the basin overnight, then stall and dissipate from Straits of
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed. Gale force winds are
still expected tonight in the SW Gulf behind the front with seas
building around 11 ft. Southerly return flow will prevail across
the Gulf region Thu through Sat. The next cold front is forecast
to move across the Gulf waters on Sun.


Scattered moderate convection is over western Cuba, the Yucatan
Straits, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, and
NE Nicaragua. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. In the
upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence.

High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale force
at night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Trade winds
will diminish slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens
the ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan
Channel Wed. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south-
central Caribbean Thu through Sat.


A 1026 mb high in the W Atlantic is centered near 30N62W. A
surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 30N37W to 26N42W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm east of the trough. Another
surface trough is W of the Canary Islands from 29N23W to 23N20W
depicted by a sharp wind shift.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds through tonight. Southerly winds will increase
east of Florida tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to enter
the SW N Atlantic tonight. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to north-central Cuba by Wed night. A weak low pressure could
develop along the front E of the Bahamas on Thu, and persist on
Fri. Then, the low is forecast to move NE and N of the area by Fri
night, dragging the associated cold front across the SE waters on

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