AXNT20 KNHC 131147

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W and extends to 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 05S-00N between 22W-35W.
Scattered showers are 00N-02N between 15W-17W.


A cold front extends from central Florida near 27N82W across the
Gulf to S of Mexico near 18N93W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extends 80 to 90 nm southeast ahead of the cold
front from the Yucatan Peninsula across Florida. The tail end of
a secondary front extends across the Florida Panhandle into the
Gulf near 30N85W. Gale force winds are no longer observed behind
the front. However, strong to fresh north winds are indicated
behind the front with recent scatterometer data. East of the
front, winds are from the SE at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the warm sector over the E Gulf from 21N-30N
between 82W-86W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows a line of
scattered moderate isolated strong thunderstorms extending
200 nm behind the front covering from the Florida Big Bend
to Daytona Beach into Lake Okeechobee.

A strong cold front extending from Tampa Florida to the Bay of
Campeche will continue moving across the remainder of the basin
this morning, then stall and dissipate from Straits of Florida to
the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Strong northerly winds are
expected NW of the front today. Southerly return flow will prevail
across the Gulf region Thu through Sat. Another cold front will
reach the NW Gulf Sun night.


Scattered moderate convection is over western Cuba, the Yucatan
Straits, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, and
NE Nicaragua. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. In the
upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence.
High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, with highest winds near the
coast of Colombia each night. Trade winds will diminish slightly
today as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front
will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel by afternoon.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the southern
Caribbean Thu through Sat.


A cold front enters the western Atlantic this morning extending
from 31N78W to 29N80W. SCattered moderate to strong convection
is depicted 60 to 80 nm ahead of the cold front. Further east,
a cold front extends south from a 1000 mb low pressure centered
near 36N34W to 28N49W and connects to a warm front near 30N59W. A
surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 29N36W to 25N41W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm east of the trough. Another
surface trough is W of the Canary Islands from 29N23W to 23N20W
depicted by a sharp wind shift.

A cold front moving off the northern Florida coast will reach
from Bermuda to north-central Cuba tonight. A weak low pressure
area may develop along the front east of the Bahamas on Thu, and
persist into Fri. The low is expected to move NE of the area Fri
night, with a trough extending south of the low to Turks and

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