AXNT20 KNHC 132345

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W and extends to 03N13W to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 06S35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the equator mainly west of 28W.


A cold front has moved SE of the Gulf of Mexico with only a
small portion extending across the Florida Straits. Scattered
moderate convection related to the front extends across the
Florida Peninsula, western Cuba, and adjacent waters mainly east
of 84W. Surface high pressure is building across the basin in the
wake of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh anticyclonic
winds across the Gulf waters. These conditions will continue
through Thursday, when southerly return flow will develop and
prevail through Saturday night. The next cold front will reach
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.


A cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N82W to a 1015 mb
surface low near 19N85W. The front continues to Honduras near
16N85W then across Central America. Scattered moderate convection
is noted mainly north of 19N between 80W-84W. In the eastern and
central Caribbean, no significant convection is noted. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh trades east of 74W, while
moderate to fresh winds are noted west of 73W.

Fresh to strong trade winds, with sea height reaching 8 ft at
least, will continue in the south-central Caribbean until Thursday
morning. Fresh winds and seas below 7 ft will prevail through the


A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N74W to 24N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and west of the
front. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N30W to
26N42W to 30N57W. Strong winds are near and behind this front
mainly north of 28N. A weak surface trough is over the east
Atlantic extending from 29N21W to 26N22W.

The cold front that is currently east of Florida, will reach from
Bermuda to north central Cuba tonight. It is possible that a weak
low pressure center may develop along the front east of the
Bahamas on Thursday, and persist through Friday. The low pressure
center is expected to move northeast of the area on Friday night,
with a trough extending south of the low to the Turks and Caicos
Islands. Expect fresh to strong northeast winds, and sea heights
of 8 ft, possibly as far as 240 nm to the northwest of the low
center, as the low center moves east.

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