AXNT20 KNHC 140607

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W and extends to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 04S36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
the equator mainly west of 28W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is also present 200 nm south of the monsoon trough from
03N-04N between 11W-15W.


A cold front has exit the Gulf of Mexico with a 1024 mb high
pressure building across the basin. Fair weather conditions
prevail with no significant convection noted. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the
eastern Gulf waters and gentle to moderate over the NE Gulf.

Fresh to strong NE winds, and seas up to 9 ft are still noted
over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, in the wake
of the cold front currently located over the NW Caribbean.
These wind speeds will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight.
Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf region from
Thursday through Saturday night. Another cold front will reach
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.


A cold front extends from central Cuba near 21N79W to a 1014 mb
surface low near 17N84W. The front continues to Honduras near
15N84W then across Central America. Scattered moderate convection
is noted mainly north of 18N between 74W-82W. In the eastern,
central and southern Caribbean, no significant convection is
noted. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades east of
69W, while moderate to fresh winds are noted west of 67W.

Fresh to strong trade winds, with sea height reaching 8 ft at
least, will continue in the south-central Caribbean until Thursday
morning. The wind speeds will slow down to fresh, and the sea
heights will diminish to 6 to 7 feet, from Thursday morning until
Saturday night. The fresh to strong winds and the sea heights
reaching 8 feet will start to return, from Saturday night through
the end of the forecast period.


A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N70W to 24N75W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and west of the
front. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N25W to
to 24N40W to 25N54W. Strong winds are near and behind this front
mainly north of 26N. A weak surface trough is over the east
Atlantic extending from 31N20W to 25N23W.

A cold front extending from 31N70W to central Cuba will reach
from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. A weak low
pressure center is forecast to develop along the front east of the
Bahamas on Thursday, and persist into Friday. The low pressure
center is expected to move NE of the area on Friday night, with a
trough extending south of the low to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Expect fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights of 8 feet N of
the frontal boundary as the low center moves NE.

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