AXNT20 KNHC 141044

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Minimal NE gale-force winds are expected to continue pulsing at
night along the coast of Colombia through 1200 UTC this morning
and again tonight. Corresponding sea heights when winds are
highest will range between 8 to 11 feet. A respite in the gales is
expected Fri and Sat as low pres moving E from the United States
mainland weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico later this morning,
then move SE across the Gulf through early Sat. Behind the front,
gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near
Tampico and Veracruz late Friday and last through early Saturday.
Seas of 10 to 13 feet are expected over portions of the SW Gulf
of Mexico during that time. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03S29W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07S-01N between 24W and the coast of Brazil.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 07S-03N
between 19W-24W.


Deep layer ridging covers the eastern Gulf, while upper-level
ridging is covering the southern Gulf. No significant
precipitation is noted over the Gulf at this time. The latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over most of the Gulf of Mexico,
with strong winds in the south-central Gulf. Broken low clouds
cover portions of the NW Gulf off of Texas and Louisiana with
visibilities reported in the 3 to 6 mile range.

A cold front moving eastward over Texas will enter the NW Gulf
late this morning. A squall line ahead of the front was oriented
along a line from Shreveport Louisiana to Lufkin Texas to 60 nm
west-northwest of Houston as of 1000 UTC. This line will reach the
NW Gulf around sunrise this morning in a weakened state, likely
as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The front will
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Fri night,
then stall from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sat night,
then start to slowly drift southward Sun into Mon. Gale force
winds are expected to develop over the waters near Tampico and
Veracruz on Fri evening through Sat.


Fresh to strong trade winds continue over much the Caribbean Sea,
as shown by the latest ASCAT pass, with moderate winds over
portions of the NE and NW Caribbean. The strongest winds are
focusing along the coast of Colombia, with another area of 25-30
kt winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Water vapor loops from GOES-16
show very dry air over the southern and western Caribbean. Strong
subsidence is over the western Caribbean and Central America due
to strong mid-upper level ridging. Mid-upper level troughing
covers the E Caribbean E of 68W. In the NE Caribbean where the
air is slightly more moist, isolated showers are seen near Puerto
Rico and the waters N of 17N between 64W-68W.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale
force winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight.
Fresh to strong winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of
Venezuela and Belize offshore waters tonight. Moderate to fresh
trades will continue across the remainder of the area.


A cold front curves SW from the central Atlantic near 32N51W to
24N60W to 22N71W, then continues as a stationary front through the
SE and central Bahamas to 23N76W. A surface trough is ahead of the
front from 26N54W to 21N62W. A mid-upper level trough axis
extends from 31N56W to 15N61W. These features are enhancing
scattered moderate convection along and within 240 nm SE of the
cold front, N of 21N and E of 62W. Farther south, another surface
trough extends from 13N59W to 20N52W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen near the northern end of the trough from
19N-23N between 47W-53W. A 1038 mb high centered NE of the Azores
near 42N19W is resulting in fresh to strong trades over portions
of the subtropical and tropical eastern Atlantic between the coast
of Africa and 40W, but these winds will be relaxing slightly
later today as the high weakens.

The front that extends from 23N65W to the southern Bahamas will
drift southward while weakening today. High pressure building in
the wake of the front will prevail through Sat, when a new cold
front will move off the coast of the SE United States. The front
will stall from near 31N70W to South Florida late Sat, before it
starts to slowly drift SE Sun through Mon.

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