AXNT20 KNHC 142318

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are expected to begin tonight at 15/0600 UTC
along the coast of Colombia, then end by 15/1800 UTC Fri.
Corresponding sea heights will range between 10 and 11 feet. Winds
along the coast of Colombia are forecasted to then fall below
gale force through the end of this week as ridging over the
western Atlc is weakened by low pres moving E across the United
States. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A slow moving cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. Gale
force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near Tampico
and Veracruz by 16/0600 UTC south of 24N and west of the front.
Seas of 8 to 12 feet are expected during this time W of the front.
Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue W of the
front along the coast of Mexico Sat night and Sun as a sharp
ridge of high pressure remains in place along the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present within an area bounded by 05S20W to 03N24W to 00N43W to
03S41W to 05S20W.


A cold front crosses the NW Gulf of Mexico from SW Louisiana near
29.5N92.5W to just S of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River near
25.5N97W. Low clouds and patchy light rain are observed along and
N of the front. Moderate to fresh N winds are found north of front
while moderate to fresh SE winds are taking place south of front.
Surface ridging over the Gulf extends SW over the Gulf from the
Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence and
deep-layer ridging cover the entire Gulf. Fair weather remains in
place south of the front.

The cold front will slowly advance SE to reach from Mobile Bay
Alabama to Tampico Mexico by early Fri, then from Tampa Bay
Florida to 22N95W to Coatzacoalcos Mexico along the S shore of the
Bay of Campeche by early Sat. Winds to gale force will follow the
front from Tampico to Veracruz from late Fri through early Sat.
Winds and seas will slowly diminish as the front gradually stalls
and weakens from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan
peninsula through early next week.


Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the Caribbean Sea with the
exception that strong to near gale force winds persist along the
coast of Colombia. Winds over the basin will abate during the next
couple of days and allow the gales along the coast of Colombia to
wind down as the ridge to the N weakens. Shower coverage over the
basin remains isolated as mid to upper-level ridging along 85W
maintains subsident NW flow over the Caribbean Sea and Central

Fresh to strong winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of
Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night, then
diminish Sat.


A cold front extends SW from the central Atlantic near 32N48W to
24N56W to 22N63W, then continues as a stationary front to the N
coast of central Cuba near 22N77W. A sharp upper-level trough
extends SSW from 32N51W to 17N60W. Divergent winds to the E of
this trough are triggering scattered moderate convection along and
up to 120 nm E of the front. Surface troughing curves ahead of
the front from 27N50W to 17N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along and up to 120 nm E of the trough between 21N and 29N. A
1035 mb high centered over the E Atlantic near 42N18W supports
moderate to fresh NE winds over the tropical Atlc between 25W and

Over the western Atlantic, the frontal boundary has begun to
stall just N of the Greater Antilles as the western portion begins
to dissipate. The northern portion of the front will push as far
east as 40W by Sat morning before the entire boundary stalls and
dissipates by Sun evening. High pressure building in the wake of
the front will shift east of the region ahead of another cold
front moving off the SE United States Fri night. The new front
will reach from Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun, then
drift S to stall over the Bahamas by the middle of next week.

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