AXNT20 KNHC 151101

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are occurring near the coast of Colombia and
are expected to end around 1500 UTC this morning. Corresponding
sea heights will range between 10 and 11 feet. Winds along the
coast of Colombia are then forecast to remain below gale force
through the weekend as ridging over the western Atlc is weakened
by low pres moving E across the United States. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to 24N96W to
20N97W to 22N100W. Gale force winds are forecast to develop over
the waters near Tampico and Veracruz by late this afternoon or
early evening south of 24N and west of 95W, lasting into Saturday
morning. Seas of 10 to 15 feet are expected W of the front.
Strong to near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of
the front along the coast of Mexico Sat night and Sun as a sharp
ridge remains in place along the eastern slopes of the Sierra
Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01S26W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present from 01N-05N between 17W-25W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07S-00N between 30W-


At 0900 UTC, a cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from near
Pascagoula Mississippi to Buras Louisiana to 24N96W to the coast
of Mexico near 20N97W to 22N100W. Numerous moderate rainshowers
and scattered thunderstorms cover the NW Gulf of Mexico to the NW
of the cold front. Strong NE winds are found NW of the front
while moderate SE winds are occurring SE of the front. 500-mb
ridging over the Yucatan and south-central Gulf of Mexico is
inducing strong subsidence in that area. An area of slightly
higher mid-level moisture closer to South Florida is inducing
scattered showers from the western Florida Straits to the Naples
area from 23.5N-26N between 81W-83W.

The cold front over the Gulf will reach from Panama City Florida
to the central Gulf by this afternoon, where it will transition
to a stationary front SW to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near
gale force winds will follow the front, except increasing to gale
force by early evening over portions of the area. See section
above for details. The front will slow down as it moves across
the eastern Gulf tonight into Sat, and become stationary from near
Fort Myers Florida to 23N87W to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sat
through Sun night. The front will then push south on Mon toward
the Florida Straits. A trough will set up from northwest to
southeast over the SW Gulf on Sun and weaken Mon through Tue.


Fresh to strong trades are over the central Caribbean S of 17N
between 67W-78W, with moderate winds in the NE Caribbean and
between 79W-84W. The exceptions are that strong to minimal gale
force winds prevail near the coast of Colombia, with strong to
locally near gale in the Gulf of Honduras S of 19N and W of 85W.
Scattered showers are seen south of the Cayman Islands from 16N-
20N between 79W-82W. Elsewhere, shower coverage remains isolated
as 500-mb ridging over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America
maintains subsident flow over the western Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trades over much of the central Caribbean through Tue. Gale force
winds along and near the coast of Colombia will diminish to near
gale force early this morning and continue as strong to near gale
force speeds through the next few nights and early mornings.
Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the
area through early next week.


A 1026 mb high near 34N68W extends a ridge over the forecast
waters in the western Atlantic. On the southern periphery of the
ridge, isolated showers are near South Florida and the Florida
Straits due to slightly enhanced moisture in the area. A cold
front extends SW from the central Atlantic near 32N45W to 24N52W
to 21N59W to 22N62W, then continues as a stationary front to the
Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough curves ahead of the
front from 28N45W to 17N56W. Upper-level troughing covers the
area of the Atlantic and Caribbean between 50W-68W. Diffluent
upper-level flow to the E of this trough is triggering scattered
moderate convection over the central Atlantic N of 23N between
40W-48W. Ridging east of 40W is leading to fair weather in the
eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1032 mb high near 42N16W.

The weakening stationary front along 22N from 62W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands will dissipate by Sat afternoon. High pressure
north of the front will shift east-southeastward through the
weekend in response to the next cold front that will move off the
SE Georgia and NE Florida coasts tonight. This front will reach
from near 31N77W to Stuart, Florida by early Sat afternoon, from
near Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by
early Sun, and from near 31N65W to 29N69W and stationary to the
NW Bahamas and to southern Florida by early Mon afternoon. Low
pressure may develop along the front and track northeastward early
next week with increasing winds and building seas expected over
much of the central and western waters.

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