AXNT20 KNHC 151739

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds were occurring within 90 nm N of Colombia.
Corresponding sea heights in this area range between 9 and 10
ft. Winds along the coast of Colombia will remain below gale
force through the weekend as ridging over the western Atlc is
weakened by low pressure moving E across the United States.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to 26N94W to
20N96W. Gale force winds are currently over the waters near
Tampico and Veracruz as seen in the scatterometer data south of
27N and west of 95W. These conditions will continue through Sat.
Seas of 10 to 15 feet are expected W of the front. Strong to near
gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front
along the coast of Mexico Sat night and Sun as a sharp ridge
remains in place along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone and
Liberia near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
01S25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 00N-05S between 24W-


A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Pensacola
Florida near 30N88W to 26N93W to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W.
Numerous moderate showers and scattered thunderstorms cover the
NW Gulf of Mexico to the NW of the cold front. Scattered showers
is also noted along the cold front. Strong NE winds are found NW
of the front while moderate SE winds are occurring SE of the
front. Upper level ridging over the Yucatan and south-central Gulf
of Mexico is inducing strong subsidence over the area. Elsewhere,
mid-level moisture closer to South Florida is inducing scattered
showers from the western Florida Straits to the Naples area from
26N-24N between 81W-83W.

The front will reach from near from near Panama City, Florida to
the central Gulf by this afternoon, where it will transition to a
stationary front southwestward to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to
near gale force winds will follow the front, except increasing to
gale force on Fri evening near Veracruz, Mexico and over the
Tampico adjacent waters. The front will begin to slow down as it
moves across the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat, and become
stationary from near Fort Myers, Florida to 23N87W and to the
eastern Bay of Campeche Sat and through Sun night. The front will
push south as a cold front on Mon and become stationary across the
lower Straits of Florida, N Cuba, and west-southwestward to near
the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night. A trough will set up from
northwest to southeast over the SW Gulf on Sun and weaken Mon
through Tue.


Fresh to strong trades are over the central Caribbean S of 17N
between 67W-79W, with moderate winds in the NE Caribbean and
between 77W-84W. The exceptions are that strong to minimal gale
force winds prevail near the coast of Colombia, with strong to
locally near gale in the Gulf of Honduras S of 19N and W of 85W.
Scattered showers are seen moving south of the Greater Antilles.
Additionally, scattered showers were also seen moving across the
NW Caribbean and into Central America near Costa Rica and into the
Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, shower coverage remains isolated as
an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central
America maintains subsident flow over the western Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong trades in much of the central Caribbean Sea through
Tue. Gale-force winds along and near the coast of Colombia are
diminishing this afternoon, and continue as strong to near gale-
force speeds during the next few nights and early mornings.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder
of the area through early next week.


A 1028 mb high near 35N65W extends a ridge over the forecast
waters in the western Atlantic. On the southern periphery of the
ridge, isolated showers are near South Florida and the Florida
Straits due to slightly enhanced moisture in the area. A cold
front enters the forecast area near 31N44W and extends
southwestward to 26N48W to 21N63W. A stationary front extends
westward from 21N63W to the southern Bahamas near 22N72W. A
surface trough curves ahead of the front from 30N44W to 22N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and ahead of the
front from 30N-23N between 38W-44W. Ridging east of 40W is leading
to fair weather in the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb
high near 42N16W.

The stationary front along 22N will dissipate by Sat afternoon.
High pressure north of the front will shift east-southeastward
through the weekend in response to the next cold front expected to
move off the SE Georgia and NE Florida coasts Fri night. This
front will reach from near 31N77W to Stuart, Florida by early
Sat afternoon, from near Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to
southern Florida by early Sun, from near 31N65W to 29N69W and
stationary to the NW Bahamas and to southern Florida by early
Mon afternoon, and stationary from near 29N65W to 27N74W and to
the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida and Cuba on
Tues. It is possible that low pressure may develop along the
front and track northeastward early next week, with increasing
winds and building seas expected in much of the central and
western waters.

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