AXNT20 KNHC 201802
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...
N to NE gale winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine
zone of Agadir. Near gales will spread to the marine zone in the
Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir
today into Tuesday as northeast winds continues. For more
information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at
http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
A trough of low pressure centered near 26N68W about midway
between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorms have
increased overnight and this morning. A low pressure system is
expected to form within this area of disturbed weather later
today, and this system could become a short-lived subtropical or
tropical cyclone by tonight or Tuesday while it moves northward or
northeastward. By Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development, and the system should
be absorbed by a cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this
afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system.
Gale southeast winds are expected in portion of the southwest Gulf
especially within 60 nm of the coast between Corpus Christi, Texas
and Matagorda, Texas. SE winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts
up to gale force are possible. Seas could reach up to 9 feet.
Conditions are expected through early Tuesday as a strong low
pressure system form in the southern plains.
A tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 10N southward. Scattered
showers are noted extending out 80 to 100 nm on either side of
the wave axis.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N16W. A tropical wave is located between the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ near 10N-02N between 16W/17W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along and south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ east of 25W. Additional scattered moderate
convection is also seen near the coast of Brazil and the ITCZ
from 01N to 02S between 49W-39W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 mb high is analyzed in northeast Florida near 30N81W and
is ridging across most of the basin. Fair weather conditions
persist across the Gulf with no significant convection in the
basin. A surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula is seen near
22N88W to 18N93W. A 1007 mb low is noted near the Mexican coast
near 20N96W. Winds continue to be light to gentle and out of the
east in the eastern Gulf. However, in the western portion of the
basin, winds are fresh to strong out of the southeast. Near gale
conditions are forecast for today along portion of the western
Gulf. Smoke continues to be noted over the western Gulf west of
91W and south of 23N.
Strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected across the
western Gulf today and tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds
near the west coast of Yucatan Peninsula are possible each night
as a trough moves W from land. Smoke and haze from fires across
southern Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and
the Bay of Campeche the next several days.
Convection continues across the southwestern portion of the basin
off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.
The convection impacting the Windward Passage has tapered off.
Showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and eastern portion
of the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the
southern Caribbean with the strongest winds off the Venezuelan
coast. For the rest of the basin, trades are generally light to
Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday
night, then winds in these areas will decrease Fri and Fri night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the Tropical North
Atlantic through Fri night.
A 1015 mb low is observed near 26N68W with a trough extending
along the low from 29N67W to 22N69W. Scattered moderate
convection is near and to the east and northeast of the low, from
31N-25N between 64W-70W. Another cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed west of the low from 28N-22N near
the southeast Bahamas. Please refer to the Special Features
section above for additional information associated to the
surface trough. Meanwhile, what was once a dying stationary front
in the central Atlantic is a weak surface trough analyzed from
30N47W to 27N53W. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N48W
and a 1023 mb high near 33N25W. A surface trough is between these
two high pressures analyzed near 28N38W to 22N40W. Scattered
showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough axis.
Low pressure currently centered near 26.5N68.5W could develop
into a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or
Tuesday as it moves N to NE. Otherwise, Moderate winds will
generally prevail across the region through Fri night. Please see
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at
For additional information please