AXNT20 KNHC 210521
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Sub-tropical Storm Andrea...
Sub-tropical Storm Andrea is centered near 29.5N 68.7W, or about
260 nm SW of Bermuda at 21/0300 UTC, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is mainly confined to the eastern semicircle within 180
nm of the center NE quad and 270 nm SE quad. A recent partial
ASCAT pass shows winds of 35 kt in the NE quadrant. Andrea is
forecast to slow down as it turns to the northeast today and east
tonight. Little change in strength is expected today, with
dissipation by Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.
...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
SE winds of 25-30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are
currently occurring in the northwest Gulf of Mexico north of 26N
and west of 93W and will last through this morning due to the
presence of a strong low pressure system in the Southern Plains.
Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...
North to northeast gale-force winds are forecast to continue
pulsing off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir
through today. Near-gale conditions are then expected to continue
in Agadir into Wednesday. For more information, please see the
latest forecast from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com
A tropical wave is along 19W from 10N southward, moving W around
10 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted out to 90 nm on
either side of the wave axis mainly south of 05N.
The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends west of a
tropical wave from 03N23W to 02N45W to 00N50W. Scattered showers
are noted along the ITCZ between 23W-31W and west of 40W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the northwest Gulf.
A surface ridge is over northern Florida and the NE Gulf, where
gentle winds prevail. ASCAT shows strong E winds off the NW coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile, fresh to near-gale SE winds
are over the western half of the basin. Smoke continues to be
noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf,
mainly west of 93W and south of 27N.
Strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected today across
the western Gulf between high pressure over the southeast U.S. and
lower pressure over the Central Plains. Fresh to strong easterly
winds near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula are possible
each night as a trough moves W from land. Smoke and haze from
fires across southern Mexico could reduce visibilities over the
western Gulf and Bay of Campeche for the next several days.
Scattered moderate convection continues across the southwest
Caribbean south of 16N and west of 79W. Isolated showers and
tstorms are noted over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Moderate
trades cover much of the basin with fresh winds in the south-
central Caribbean. Strong winds are seen in ASCAT data near the
coasts of NW Venezuela, NE Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras.
Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday
night, then will diminish by Sat. A tropical wave may approach the
waters east of the Windward Islands by late Sat.
Refer to section above for details on Sub-tropical Storm Andrea.
Scattered showers and tstorms prevail between the N coast of
Hispaniola and the convection associated with Andrea. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1022 mb high near 34N55W and a 1022 mb high near 33N22W. A cold
front is analyzed between these two highs from 32N38W to 27N50W.
Isolated showers are possible along the front.
Aside from the area where Andrea is located, moderate winds will
generally prevail across the region through mid-week, then
increase slightly to moderate to fresh as high pressure builds in
the wake of Andrea.
For additional information please