AXNT20 KNHC 140543
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding in Central America:
The potential for heavy to extreme amounts of rain exists in parts
of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, due to upper
level atmospheric conditions, from now through Friday. Currently,
numerous moderate to scattered strong rainshowers are covering
parts of Panama and Costa Rica. It is likely that the heaviest
rainfall amounts may occur in Panama and Costa Rica. It is
possible that these heavy to extreme rains may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides in some areas.
SW Carribbean Gale Warning: A surface ridge will persist from the
central Atlantic Ocean, west-southwestward across the central
Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida. This pattern has been
supporting gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. The current
forecast consists of the wind speeds slowing down to less than
gale-force, starting at 14/0600 UTC. Please, read the High Seas
Forecast product at http://hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Model diagnostics depict the
wave well at 700 mb. ITCZ precipitation also is nearby, from 07N
to 10N between 34W and 40W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 24N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. The wave model diagnostics
depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry
Saharan air, which is limiting precipitation to the north of 12N.
ITCZ precipitation also is nearby, from 12N southward between 55W
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 23N79W just to the
north of Cuba, to 17N81W, southward along 81W to Panama.
Precipitation that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea also
is related to the monsoon trough.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 11N21W 11N28W, and 08N36W. The ITCZ is along
08N39W 09N48W 08N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 49W and 51W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N
between 23W and 40W, and from 12N southward between 40W and 60W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The GFS model data for 700 mb show an inverted trough from the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the NW corner of the area, and
then extending into the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. The 500 mb
GFS model data show an inverted trough in the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 95W
Surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf of Mexico
waters, supporting light to moderate winds and sea heights
generally less than 5 feet. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh
in the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening,
associated with a surface trough.
An upper level trough extends from upper level cyclonic wind flow
that is on top of Hispaniola, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Mexico between the
Yucatan Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, from 17N to 19N between 91W and 93W, and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers in general cover the rest
of the area that is from 15N northward from 70W westward.
The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and
beyond 86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in NW Venezuela and N Colombia from 08N to
11N between Lake Maracaibo and 75W in Colombia. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 12N from
A tropical wave along 81W will move out of the western Caribbean
Sea late on Wednesday. A second tropical wave, that currently is
in the Atlantic Ocean along 57W, in the waters that are to the E
of the Lesser Antilles, will reach the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Wednesday morning. The passage of these waves, along with high
pressure to the north of the area, will continue to support
generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest
Caribbean Sea through Friday night. Minimal gale-force winds in
the Gulf of Venezuela will diminish to strong winds early on
An upper level trough extends from the Canary Islands, to an upper
level cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N35W, toward the
Hispaniola upper level cyclonic circulation center. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 29N to 32N between 39W and 42W, and
from 24N to 27N between 59W and 62W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W eastward.
The GFS model data for 500 mb and 700 mb show that an inverted
trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from Cuba northward from
70W westward. Broken multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the area of the cyclonic wind flow.
A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high
pressure center that is near 38N25W, to a 1026 mb high pressure
center that is near 33N47W, through 32N54W, to 27N73W, toward Lake
Okeechobee in Florida.
The current surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic
Ocean, extending west-southwestward across the central Bahamas,
to the Straits of Florida through the end of the week. This
pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of
22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the
period. Active weather will continue across the NW waters through
Wednesday, as the remnants of a former front linger in the region.