000
AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico
to Central America

Currently: Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in
Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 10N between the border of
Venezuela and Colombia and 76W. Scattered strong rainshowers are
in the southern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are elsewhere from 07N to 15N from 72W westward.

A large surge of moisture will encompass the areas that extend
from northern parts of South America and Central America, to
southern Mexico, during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental
conditions remain highly favorable for heavy rains to continue to
accumulate, with higher localized totals near strong topographical
forcing. The comparatively greatest amounts of rainfall are being
forecast for the areas that extend from Panama to Nicaragua,
including the offshore waters of those countries in the Caribbean
Sea and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Other areas of rainfall,
elsewhere, will cover the areas from NW Venezuela and N Colombia
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Flash floods and
mudslides will be the biggest hazards during this event.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 05N to 12N between 10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 16N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 09N to 10N between 49W and 51W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 09N to 12N between 43W and 48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W from 20N southward,
moving W 15 to 20 knots. An upper level trough extends from SE
Cuba to Jamaica to Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the waters from 16N northward from Haiti
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 09N24W and 08N36W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N36W to 09N42W 09N47W, to the coast of Suriname near
06N56W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N20W
to 08N25W 06N30W 07N35W, and from 10N southward between 52W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through central Georgia to southern
Alabama, southern Mississippi, and central Louisiana. A surface
trough extends from SE Georgia, to the Florida Big Bend, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 27N northward from 92W eastward.

The stationary front that is along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coastline continues to generate scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. The front
will extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeast Texas on
Friday morning, and then it will weaken into a surface trough on
Saturday. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected in the NE Gulf
of Mexico, ahead of the front and trough. The winds will pulse to
fresh in the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each
evening, associated with a surface trough. Surface high pressure
will establish itself, elsewhere in the region, early on Saturday,
and prevail through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward from Puerto Rico westward. A tropical wave is along
73W/74W from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. An upper
level trough extends from SE Cuba to Jamaica to Honduras. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 16N
northward from Haiti westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 10N80W, to
12N86W in Nicaragua, and continuing southwestward into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in
Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 10N between the border of
Venezuela and Colombia and 76W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 15N from
72W westward.

A tropical wave along 74W will move across the western Caribbean
Sea on Friday and Saturday. The passage of the wave, along with
high pressure to the north of the area, will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds in the central and southwest sections
of the Caribbean Sea through Friday, and in the NW Caribbean Sea
on Saturday and Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the
south central basin early on Monday, supported by the passage of
a new tropical wave moving across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 30N20W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, to a 28N44W upper level cyclonic circulation
center, to a 20N55W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to a
Bahamas 25N77W upper level cyclonic circulation center. A surface
trough is along 53W/54W from 20N to 25N. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the area
from 25N to 30N between 40W and 50W, and from 20N to 30N between
50W and 60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward
from 70W westward, including across the Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N43W, to 32N59W, to 27N72W, across Florida and through
the Straits of Florida to 26N86W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge, that extends from the Azores and the Bermuda
High, will persist across the forecast waters through Tuesday.
This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north
of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, through most of
the period. The remnants of a front will extend across
northern Florida on Saturday night, supporting fresh to strong SW
winds in the Jacksonville adjacent waters. Fresh to strong winds
are expected between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola
at night through Friday. Strong winds will resume in this region
on Monday evening.




Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and
Caicos and Hispaniola at night through Fri. Strong winds will
resume in this region Mon night.

$$
MT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico
to Central America

Currently: Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in
Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 10N between the border of
Venezuela and Colombia and 76W. Scattered strong rainshowers are
in the southern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are elsewhere from 07N to 15N from 72W westward.

A large surge of moisture will encompass the areas that extend
from northern parts of South America and Central America, to
southern Mexico, during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental
conditions remain highly favorable for heavy rains to continue to
accumulate, with higher localized totals near strong topographical
forcing. The comparatively greatest amounts of rainfall are being
forecast for the areas that extend from Panama to Nicaragua,
including the offshore waters of those countries in the Caribbean
Sea and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Other areas of rainfall,
elsewhere, will cover the areas from NW Venezuela and N Colombia
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Flash floods and
mudslides will be the biggest hazards during this event.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 05N to 12N between 10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 16N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 09N to 10N between 49W and 51W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 09N to 12N between 43W and 48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W from 20N southward,
moving W 15 to 20 knots. An upper level trough extends from SE
Cuba to Jamaica to Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the waters from 16N northward from Haiti
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 09N24W and 08N36W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N36W to 09N42W 09N47W, to the coast of Suriname near
06N56W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N20W
to 08N25W 06N30W 07N35W, and from 10N southward between 52W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through central Georgia to southern
Alabama, southern Mississippi, and central Louisiana. A surface
trough extends from SE Georgia, to the Florida Big Bend, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 27N northward from 92W eastward.

The stationary front that is along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coastline continues to generate scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. The front
will extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeast Texas on
Friday morning, and then it will weaken into a surface trough on
Saturday. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected in the NE Gulf
of Mexico, ahead of the front and trough. The winds will pulse to
fresh in the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each
evening, associated with a surface trough. Surface high pressure
will establish itself, elsewhere in the region, early on Saturday,
and prevail through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward from Puerto Rico westward. A tropical wave is along
73W/74W from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. An upper
level trough extends from SE Cuba to Jamaica to Honduras. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 16N
northward from Haiti westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 10N80W, to
12N86W in Nicaragua, and continuing southwestward into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in
Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 10N between the border of
Venezuela and Colombia and 76W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 15N from
72W westward.

A tropical wave along 74W will move across the western Caribbean
Sea on Friday and Saturday. The passage of the wave, along with
high pressure to the north of the area, will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds in the central and southwest sections
of the Caribbean Sea through Friday, and in the NW Caribbean Sea
on Saturday and Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the
south central basin early on Monday, supported by the passage of
a new tropical wave moving across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 30N20W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, to a 28N44W upper level cyclonic circulation
center, to a 20N55W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to a
Bahamas 25N77W upper level cyclonic circulation center. A surface
trough is along 53W/54W from 20N to 25N. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the area
from 25N to 30N between 40W and 50W, and from 20N to 30N between
50W and 60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward
from 70W westward, including across the Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N43W, to 32N59W, to 27N72W, across Florida and through
the Straits of Florida to 26N86W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge, that extends from the Azores and the Bermuda
High, will persist across the forecast waters through Tuesday.
This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north
of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, through most of
the period. The remnants of a front will extend across
northern Florida on Saturday night, supporting fresh to strong SW
winds in the Jacksonville adjacent waters. Fresh to strong winds
are expected between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola
at night through Friday. Strong winds will resume in this region
on Monday evening.




Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and
Caicos and Hispaniola at night through Fri. Strong winds will
resume in this region Mon night.

$$
MT