000
AXNT20 KNHC 090558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

….SPECIAL FEATURES…

…West Atlantic Gale Warning…

A cold front extending from near 31N69W to 27N76W and to inland
West Palm Beach will reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys
by Sat morning, then slow down and begin to stall over the Straits
of Florida and central Bahamas on Sun. Winds will reach gale
force north of the front to the north and east of the Bahamas
tonight through Sat evening. Winds and seas will diminish across
the region Sat night through Sun evening. The forecast calls for
winds 30 to 40 kt with seas peaking near 16 feet in the gale
area. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sun and Mon.
See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

…Gulf of Mexico Gale warning…

A cold front extending from near Naples, Florida to 25N90W and to
Veracruz, Mexico will reach from the Florida Keys to 23N90W and
to near Minatitlan, Mexico by early Sat. The cold front will then
become stationary by early Sat evening from the Straits of Florida
to 21N90W and to near Minatitlan. It will begin to weaken later
on Sat night and through Sun night. Near gale force to minimal
gale force northwest to north winds over the far west-central Gulf
will continue through late tonight as they spread so across
southward across the SW Gulf waters. These winds will continue
through early Sat afternoon before diminishing to strong winds
through late Sat night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

…Far East Atlantic Gale Warning…

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir for the next 18 hours and in the far N of
marine zone Tarfaya for the next 12 hours. Rough to very rough
seas are expected in these areas. Please refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave with its axis along 34W from 11N southward, moving
W around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is
embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 10N between 33W
and 36W.

A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N58W to 15N57W is
moving W around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave
has dry air on its east side and only modest levels of moisture
to work with. Abundant cloudiness and scattered showers are noted
180 nm to the west of the wave from 11N-19N.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean with its axis along 77W
from 19N southward, moving W around 5 kt. TPW satellite imagery
indicates this wave has dry air and only modest levels of moisture
to work with. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
near the coast of Panama and Colombia enhanced by the Pacific monsoon
trough in the area. No significant convection is seen north of 10N.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean with an axis extending
from 04N87W to 17N88W is moving W between 5 and 10 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this wave.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near
10N15W to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 05N34W, then
resumes near 05N36W to 06N45W, then west of a trough near 06N47W
to 04N52W. Aside from the convection associated with tropical
waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found
from 05N to 10N between 27W-34W, and from 09N-13n between 35W-44W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and tstorms are seen south of the
ITCZ from 02N-06N between 16W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO…

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
current Gulf of Mexico gale event and weather for that basin
through the middle of next week.

A cold front extends from near Naples near 26N81W across the
central Gulf to 24N94W to 18N95W. Scattered showers and tstorms
extend 50 to 80 nm north of the front. Widespread low clouds with
light to moderate showers are seen behind the front from 26N-30N
between 82W-87W. ASCAT data indicate strong winds north of 26N
and gale force winds especially near Veracruz, Mexico.

The area of cloudiness and rain will continue to spread SE in
conjunction with the front. The area of cloudiness and patchy rain
will gradually disperse Sat night through Sun night as the cold
front stalls and weakens. A strong arctic cold front will push
off the Texas coast Mon night and quickly sweep across the area by
mid week. Strong gale force northerly winds and large seas will
follow in behind this front across the western Gulf Tue through
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds over the
east and central Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean, where
and light winds were observed. Water vapor imagery shows and
upper-level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting mid-
level subsidence and a dry weather regime over all of the basin
except the far SW. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over
Haiti, the Windward Passage and east and south of Cuba. To the
south, scattered moderate to strong convection is associated to
the combination of the tropical wave and the monsoon trough, south
of 11N between 76W-83W.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical
Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through
Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas
will diminish across the region Sat through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings, and
the two tropical waves crossing the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to near West Palm Beach, Florida
near 26N79W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are about 80
to 90 nm southeast of the front. Strong to gale force winds will
develop tonight behind the front. A surface trough extends ahead
of the front from 30N67W to 23N71W. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted along the trough and more widespread from 25N-31N
between 61W-68W. Further south, a surface trough is noted from
04N47W to 11N45W, with scattered showers from 07N-13N between 43W-
48W. Otherwise, a paired 1032 mb high pressure is near the Azores
maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds N of the ITCZ.

A cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by
Sat morning, then slow down and begin to stall over the Straits of
Florida and central Bahamas on Sun. Winds and seas will diminish
across the region Sat night through Sun evening. A strong arctic
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Tue evening. It
is forecast to reach from near 31N67W to 28N74W to near Vero Beach,
Florida by Wed night. Strong winds and building seas will follow
in behind this front.

$$

MMTorres