000
AXNT20 KNHC 091147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

….SPECIAL FEATURES…

…West Atlantic Gale Warning…

A cold front extending southeastward across the SW Atlantic to
the northernmost Bahamas is becoming stationary this morning
between the Grand Bahamas and near Fort Lauderdale. This front
will begin to move faster later today and reach the central
Bahamas and Florida Straits by early Sun. Winds behind the front
will reach gale force to the north and east of the Bahamas today,
before diminishing tonight and Sun to strong. The forecast calls
for winds 30 to 40 kt with seas peaking near 16 feet in the gale
area. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

…Gulf of Mexico Gale warning…

A cold front early this morning stretches from south of Naples,
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Gale force northerly winds over
the western Bay of Campeche will prevail today, before decreasing
to strong tonight into Sun. Near gale force to minimal gale force
northwest to north winds over the far west-central Gulf will continue
through late tonight as they spread so across southward across
the SW Gulf waters. These winds will continue through early Sat
afternoon before diminishing to strong winds through late tonight
into Sunday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

…Far East Atlantic Gale Warning…

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir for the next 18 hours and in the far N of
marine zone Tarfaya for the next 12 hours. Rough to very rough
seas are expected in these areas. Please refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave with its axis along 34W from 11N southward, moving
W around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is
embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 04N-11N between 32W and 37W.

A tropical wave is along 45W from 12N southward, moving W at 10-
15 kt. Abundant cloudiness is observed in the vicinity of the wave
with showers and tstorms along the wave axis.

A tropical wave with an axis along 59W from 16N, moving W around
15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates modest levels of moisture
to work with. Abundant cloudiness and scattered showers and
isolated strong tstorms are noted 200 nm to the east of the wave
from 13N-20N between 56W-60W.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean with its axis along 79W
from 19N southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery
indicates this wave has dry air and only modest levels of moisture
to work with. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted near the coast of Panama and Colombia enhanced by the
Pacific monsoon trough in the area. No significant convection is
seen north of 10N.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 05N32W, then
resumes near 05N37W to 06N45W, then west of a tropical wave near
06N48W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is found from 05N to 10N between 27W-34W, and from 02N-06N
between 17W-23W. Elsewhere, scattered showers and tstorms are in
the vicinity of the wave.

GULF OF MEXICO…

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
current Gulf of Mexico gale event and weather for that basin
through the middle of next week.

A cold front early this morning stretches from south of Naples,
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This front will become stationary
over the far southeastern Gulf Sun and Mon. Gale force northerly
winds over the western Bay of Campeche will prevail today, before
decreasing to strong tonight into Sun. Another cold front will
reach the Texas coast Mon night, then move through the Gulf
through Tuesday. Gale force northerly winds and large seas will
follow for the far western Gulf Tue and Wed in the wake of the
front. ASCAT data indicate strong winds north of 26N and gale
force winds especially near Veracruz, Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds over the
central Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean, where and light
to moderate NE winds were observed. Water vapor imagery shows and
upper-level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting mid-
level subsidence and a dry weather regime over all of the basin
except the far SW. To the SW, Pacific monsoon trough is along
NW Colombia into Panama and into the Pacific waters. Widespread
area of scattered moderate to strong convection is been enhance
by the monsoon trough in the area, S of 11N between 75W-83W.
south of 11N between 76W-83W. Scattered showers and tstorms are
seen over the Windward Passage and near Cuba.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical
Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through
tonight as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and
seas will diminish across the region Sun through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings, and
the two tropical waves crossing the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to a 1011 mb low pressure
centered near 28N74W, then continues as a stationary front
at that point to 26N79W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms
are in the vicinity of the frontal boundary near the northern
Bahamas and across the Florida Peninsula. Strong to gale force
winds continue behind the front. A surface trough extends ahead
of the front from 30N64W to 23N70W. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted along the trough from 25N-31N between 59W-68W. Otherwise,
a paired 1032 mb high pressure is near the Azores maintaining
moderate to fresh NE winds N of the ITCZ.

A cold front extending southeastward across the SW Atlantic to
the northernmost Bahamas is becoming stationary this morning
between the Grand Bahamas and near Fort Lauderdale. This front
will begin to move faster later today and reach the central
Bahamas and Florida Straits by early Sun. Winds behind the front
will reach gale force to the north and east of the Bahamas today,
before diminishing tonight and Sun to strong. Another cold front
will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue evening.

$$
MMTorres