000
AXNT20 KNHC 092351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

….SPECIAL FEATURES…

…Gulf of Mexico Gale warning…

As of 09/2100 UTC a cold front extends from the Straits of Florida
near 23.5N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 23N88W to the SE Bay
of Campeche near 18N91W. Gale force NW winds are over the western
Bay of Campeche S of 20N W of 94.5W. SEAS are 10-13 ft. The Gale
will last for a few more hours until 10/0000 UTC. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

…West Atlantic Gale Warning…

As of 09/2100 UTC a cold front extends across the W Atlantic from
31N66W to 25N74W to the straits of Florida near 23.5N80W. Gale
force winds are within 90 nm N of the front E of front. Seas are
13-22 ft. The Gale will last until 10/0600 UTC. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

…Far East Atlantic Gale Warning…

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir for the next 06 hours. Rough to very rough
seas are expected. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas
Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave with axis along 48W from 12N southward, is moving
W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-13N
between 46W-50W.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis along 63W
from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW satellite imagery
depicts abundant moisture in the vicinity of the wave. Isolated
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-18N between
57W-63W.

A tropical wave is over the west Caribbean with axis along 81W
from 20N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is over E Cuba, Jamaica, the Gulf of
Honduras, and over the SW Caribbean S of 11N.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
08N13W to 06N30W to 06N40W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-09N between 15W-39W.

…GULF OF MEXICO…

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect.

A 1022 mb high is centered near Tampico Mexico at 22N98W.
Scatterometer data depicts, outside the gale area, moderate to
fresh northerly winds over the basin.

The cold front will stall over the far southeastern Gulf Sun and
Mon. Gale force NW winds near Veracruz will decrease to strong
tonight. Another cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night,
then move through the Gulf through Tuesday. Gale force northerly
winds and large seas will follow for the far western Gulf Tue and
Wed in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds over the
central Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean, where light to
moderate NE winds were are noted. Water vapor imagery shows and
upper-level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting mid-
level subsidence and a dry weather regime over most of the basin.
To the SW, the Pacific monsoon trough is along NW Colombia into
Panama and into the Pacific waters. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is been enhanced by the monsoon trough mainly S
of 11N between 77W-83W. A pre-frontal trough extends across
western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical
Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through
tonight as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and
seas will diminish across the region Sun through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings and
the tropical wave moving across the basin.

As of 09/2100 UTC a cold front extends across the W Atlantic from
31N66W to 25N74W to the straits of Florida near 23.5N80W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm SE of
the front E of 75W. A 1033 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
37N28W.

The western Atlantic cold front will stall over the central
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Gale force winds behind the
front to the north and east of the Bahamas will diminish to strong
speeds by Sun. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast
Tue evening.

$$ Formosa